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Table 4 Modeled population-adjusted predicted prevalence (PAPfPR1–59) by province and year, and predictions under constant climate or ITN scenarios, Zambia 2006–2012. Alternative predictions for 2010 were produced by including either the 2008 climate layers (for constant climate prediction) or the 2008 ITN and IRS layers (for constant vector control prediction)

From: The relative contribution of climate variability and vector control coverage to changes in malaria parasite prevalence in Zambia 2006–2012

  Annual predictions (%) (95 % BCI) Alternative predictions for 2010 (%) (95 % BCI)
Province 2006 2008 2010 2012 With constant climate With constant vector control
Central 22.7 (5.0–52.4) 8.8 (1.3–27.1) 15.0 (3.2–36.4) 12.9 (2.7–33.2) 7.8 (1.3–23.4) 15.8 (3.4–37.6)
Lusaka 5.4 (0.7–16.5) 1.8 (0.2–5.8) 1.7 (0.2–5.4) 1.0 (0.1–3.7) 0.7 (0.1–2.7) 1.9 (0.2–5.7)
Copperbelt 17.3 (5.1–38.4) 14.8 (5.9–29.0) 13.2 (5.5–26.0) 6.0 (1.2–16.5) 7.1 (2.7–15.3) 12.8 (5.2–25.1)
Eastern 29.9 (8.6–60.0) 12.5 (3.2–30.7) 28.0 (10.1–54.1) 23.0 (7.7–47.4) 17.7 (5.4–39.3) 29.6 (10.9–56.1)
Luapula 31.6 (9.7–63.2) 19.9 (5.8–43.7) 35.1 (14.5–60.8) 32.8 (12.4–59.3) 27.5 (9.8–52.9) 35.4 (14.6–61.5)
Northern 26.8 (6.5–60.1) 14.4 (3.1–39.4) 17.3 (5.2–39.7) 19.7 (5.6–44.9) 12.3 (3.3–30.6) 17.0 (5.1–39.1)
North-western 22.3 (2.2–65.3) 12.7 (1.6–40.7) 16.0 (2.2–48.8) 17.6 (2.9–49.9) 9.6 (1.2–33.0) 17.1 (2.4–50.8)
Southern 11.4 (1.7–36.5) 7.1 (1.7–18.8) 9.6 (2.3–24.1) 7.7 (1.7–21.9) 6.1 (1.1–17.3) 9.5 (2.3–23.4)
Western 16.1 (2.2–47.3) 5.8 (0.6–22.1) 8.1 (1.0–27.9) 14.3 (2.3–42.1) 5.3 (0.6–19.8) 9.7 (1.3–31.9)
National 19.6 (4.6–46.4) 10.4 (2.6–26.8) 15.3 (4.9–33.7) 13.5 (3.7–31.7) 9.9 (2.7–24.2) 15.7 (5.0–34.3)