Table 1 Overview of simulated scenarios and simulation outputs considered, by specific objective

1

Comparison of the model-predicted association between Mf and Ag prevalence at community level to observed data from literature

Hypotheses for modelling Ag-prevalence: 1-3

Model-predicted Mf and Ag prevalence for the population aged 5 years and above, for each run separately

Mbr: 1500, 1600, 1700, …4000

Comparison of the model-predicted post-MDA outcomes to empirical data from Thanjavur district, for the Ag prevalence by age-group

Hypotheses for modelling Ag-prevalence: 1-3

Model-predicted Mf and Ag prevalence by age-group, averaged over multiple repeated runs

Mbr: 1600

Treatment coverage defined by fitting the model to observed patterns of Mf prevalence

Efficacy of single treatment with DEC (kills Mf: 70 % and kills adult worm: 50 %) [87]

Efficacy of single treatment with DEC + ALB (kills Mf: 70 % and kills adult worm: 65 %) [20]

2

Assess the required duration of MDA for achieving elimination

Hypotheses for modelling Ag-prevalence: not relevant for this part of the work

Proportion of runs that resulted in elimination (elimination was said to occur if the Mf prevalence was zero, 60 years after the first treatment round)

Mbr: 1600, 1950, 2200, 2700

Treatment duration: varied

Treatment coverage: 50 %, 65 %, 80 %

Efficacy of single treatment with DEC + ALB (kills Mf: 70 % and kills adult worm: 65 %)

3

Assess the 1-year post-treatment values for Mf and Ag prevalence associated with successful control, for the community as a whole and for 6–7 year children.

Hypotheses for modelling Ag-prevalence: hypothesis 2 (identified as best in step 1)

Model-predicted Mf and Ag prevalence for the entire population aged 5 years and above and for 6–7 year-old children, as measured 1 year after the last treatment round

Mbr: 1600, 1950, 2200, 2700

Treatment duration: as need to achieve ≥ 99 % probability (estimated in step 2)

Treatment coverage: 50 %, 65 %, 80 %

Efficacy of single treatment with DEC + ALB (kills Mf: 70 % and kills adult worm: 65 %)

4

Sensitivity analysis

Hypotheses for modelling Ag-prevalence: hypothesis 2 (identified as best in step 1)

Model-predicted Mf and Ag prevalence for the entire population aged 5 years and above and for 6–7 year-old children, as measured 1 year after the last treatment round, or 6 months or 2 years after treatment

Mbr: 2200

Treatment duration: as need to achieve ≥ 99 % probability (re-estimated)

Treatment coverage: 65 %

Efficacy of single treatment with DEC + ALB: varied or as in step 3