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Table 1 Overview of simulated scenarios and simulation outputs considered, by specific objective

From: Mathematical modelling of lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes in India: required duration of mass drug administration and post-treatment level of infection indicators

Step Specific objective Inputs varied Output considered
1 Comparison of the model-predicted association between Mf and Ag prevalence at community level to observed data from literature Hypotheses for modelling Ag-prevalence: 1-3 Model-predicted Mf and Ag prevalence for the population aged 5 years and above, for each run separately
Mbr: 1500, 1600, 1700, …4000
Comparison of the model-predicted post-MDA outcomes to empirical data from Thanjavur district, for the Ag prevalence by age-group Hypotheses for modelling Ag-prevalence: 1-3 Model-predicted Mf and Ag prevalence by age-group, averaged over multiple repeated runs
Mbr: 1600
Treatment coverage defined by fitting the model to observed patterns of Mf prevalence
Efficacy of single treatment with DEC (kills Mf: 70 % and kills adult worm: 50 %) [87]
Efficacy of single treatment with DEC + ALB (kills Mf: 70 % and kills adult worm: 65 %) [20]
2 Assess the required duration of MDA for achieving elimination Hypotheses for modelling Ag-prevalence: not relevant for this part of the work Proportion of runs that resulted in elimination (elimination was said to occur if the Mf prevalence was zero, 60 years after the first treatment round)
Mbr: 1600, 1950, 2200, 2700
Treatment duration: varied
Treatment coverage: 50 %, 65 %, 80 %
Efficacy of single treatment with DEC + ALB (kills Mf: 70 % and kills adult worm: 65 %)
3 Assess the 1-year post-treatment values for Mf and Ag prevalence associated with successful control, for the community as a whole and for 6–7 year children. Hypotheses for modelling Ag-prevalence: hypothesis 2 (identified as best in step 1) Model-predicted Mf and Ag prevalence for the entire population aged 5 years and above and for 6–7 year-old children, as measured 1 year after the last treatment round
Mbr: 1600, 1950, 2200, 2700
Treatment duration: as need to achieve ≥ 99 % probability (estimated in step 2)
Treatment coverage: 50 %, 65 %, 80 %
Efficacy of single treatment with DEC + ALB (kills Mf: 70 % and kills adult worm: 65 %)
4 Sensitivity analysis Hypotheses for modelling Ag-prevalence: hypothesis 2 (identified as best in step 1) Model-predicted Mf and Ag prevalence for the entire population aged 5 years and above and for 6–7 year-old children, as measured 1 year after the last treatment round, or 6 months or 2 years after treatment
Mbr: 2200
Treatment duration: as need to achieve ≥ 99 % probability (re-estimated)
Treatment coverage: 65 %
Efficacy of single treatment with DEC + ALB: varied or as in step 3