Raw data from 300 simulations | Bounce back | Transmission interruption | Totals |
---|---|---|---|
Test positive | 0 | 242 | 242 |
Test negative | 36 | 22 | 58 |
Totals | 36 | 264 | 300 |
 |  | 95% Confidence limits |  |
 | Estimated value | Lower limit | Upper limit |
Prevalence of interruption | 0.880 | 0.836 | 0.913 |
Sensitivity | 0.917 | 0.875 | 0.946 |
Specificity | 1 | 0.880 | 1 |
Probability of simulation being either transmission interruption or bounce back | Â | Â | Â |
 Interruption | 0.807 | 0.756 | 0.848 |
 Bounce back | 0.193 | 0.151 | 0.243 |
For predicted elimination - probability of being true or false | Â | Â | Â |
 True positive (PPV) | 1 | 0.982 | 1 |
 False positive | 0 | 0 | 0.019 |
For predicted bounce back - probability of true or false | Â | Â | Â |
 True negative (NPV) | 0.621 | 0.483 | 0.741 |
 False negative | 0.379 | 0.258 | 0.516 |
Likelihood ratios | Â | Â | Â |
 Positive (C) | Infinity | – | Infinity |
 Negative (C) | 0.083 | 0.056 | 0.124 |
 Positive (W) | Infinity | – | Infinity |
 Negative (W) | 0.611 | 0.431 | 0.867 |