Table 4 Regression coefficients, RRs and 95% CrI from Bayesian spatial and non-spatial models for alveolar echinococcosis in NHAR from 1 January 1994 to 31 December 2013

α (Intercept)

-4.9 (-7.78– -2.81)

–

-5.33 (-7.97– -3.08)

–

-2.83 (-4.36– -1.76)

1. Bareland/artificial surfaces (%) MA6

-0.03 (-0.07–1.3 × 10^-3)

0.97 (0.93–1.00)

-0.05 (-0.09– -0.01)

0.95 (0.91–0.99)

–

2. Forest (%) MA4

-0.04 (-0.11–0.03)

0.96 (0.89–1.03)

-0.06 (-0.14–0.01)

0.94 (0.87–1.01)

–

3. Winter mean precipitation (mm) MA1

-0.01 (-0.05–0.02)

0.99 (0.95–1.02)

-0.01 (-0.06–0.02)

0.99 (0.94–1.02)

–

4. Annual mean temperature (°C) MA2

1.18 (-0.31–2.65)

3.26 (0.73–14.18)

1.33 (-0.23–2.91)

3.79 (0.80–18.45)

–

5. Annual mean temperature (°C) MA6

-3.63 (-6.07– -1.36)

0.02 (2.31 × 10^-3–0.26)

-3.63 (-6.20– -1.23)

0.03 (2.03 × 10^-3–0.29)

–

6. Annual temperature range (°C) MA2

-0.34 (-1.04–0.40)

0.71 (0.35–1.49)

-0.20 (-0.98–0.60)

0.82 (0.37–1.81)

–

7. Winter mean temperature (°C) MA1

-1.03 (-1.86– -0.18)

0.36 (0.16–0.84)

-1.07 (-1.92– -0.22)

0.34 (0.15–0.80)

–

8. Winter mean temperature (°C) MA6

0.42 (-0.68–1.51)

1.52 (0.51–4.52)

0.32 (-0.92–1.53)

1.38 (0.40–4.62)

–

9. Winter mean temperature² (°C) MA6

-0.47 (-1.14–0.11)

0.62 (0.32–1.12)

-0.50 (-1.18–0.11)

0.61 (0.30–1.12)

–

10. Time (year)

0.17 (0.05–0.30)

1.20 (1.06–1.35)

0.18 (0.05–0.32)

1.20 (1.05–1.37)

–

Heterogeneity unstructured

3.51 (1.66–9.27)

–

–

–

–

Heterogeneity structured

–

–

9.47 (4.60–23.82)

–

10.63 (5.54–25.01)

DIC

485.2

–

184.8

–

486.7