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Table 4 Regression coefficients, RRs and 95% CrI from Bayesian spatial and non-spatial models for alveolar echinococcosis in NHAR from 1 January 1994 to 31 December 2013

From: Spatiotemporal patterns and environmental drivers of human echinococcoses over a twenty-year period in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China

  Model I Model II Model III
Variable Coefficient, posterior mean (95% CrI) RRs, posterior mean (95% CrI) Coefficient, posterior mean (95% CrI) RRs, posterior mean (95% CrI) Coefficient, posterior mean (95% CrI)
α (Intercept) -4.9 (-7.78– -2.81) -5.33 (-7.97– -3.08) -2.83 (-4.36– -1.76)
1. Bareland/artificial surfaces (%) MA6 -0.03 (-0.07–1.3 × 10-3) 0.97 (0.93–1.00) -0.05 (-0.09– -0.01) 0.95 (0.91–0.99)
2. Forest (%) MA4 -0.04 (-0.11–0.03) 0.96 (0.89–1.03) -0.06 (-0.14–0.01) 0.94 (0.87–1.01)
3. Winter mean precipitation (mm) MA1 -0.01 (-0.05–0.02) 0.99 (0.95–1.02) -0.01 (-0.06–0.02) 0.99 (0.94–1.02)
4. Annual mean temperature (°C) MA2 1.18 (-0.31–2.65) 3.26 (0.73–14.18) 1.33 (-0.23–2.91) 3.79 (0.80–18.45)
5. Annual mean temperature (°C) MA6 -3.63 (-6.07– -1.36) 0.02 (2.31 × 10-3–0.26) -3.63 (-6.20– -1.23) 0.03 (2.03 × 10-3–0.29)
6. Annual temperature range (°C) MA2 -0.34 (-1.04–0.40) 0.71 (0.35–1.49) -0.20 (-0.98–0.60) 0.82 (0.37–1.81)
7. Winter mean temperature (°C) MA1 -1.03 (-1.86– -0.18) 0.36 (0.16–0.84) -1.07 (-1.92– -0.22) 0.34 (0.15–0.80)
8. Winter mean temperature (°C) MA6 0.42 (-0.68–1.51) 1.52 (0.51–4.52) 0.32 (-0.92–1.53) 1.38 (0.40–4.62)
9. Winter mean temperature2 (°C) MA6 -0.47 (-1.14–0.11) 0.62 (0.32–1.12) -0.50 (-1.18–0.11) 0.61 (0.30–1.12)
10. Time (year) 0.17 (0.05–0.30) 1.20 (1.06–1.35) 0.18 (0.05–0.32) 1.20 (1.05–1.37)
Heterogeneity unstructured 3.51 (1.66–9.27)
Heterogeneity structured 9.47 (4.60–23.82) 10.63 (5.54–25.01)
DIC 485.2 184.8 486.7