A forecasting model for dengue incidence in the District of Gampaha, Sri Lanka

Parasites & Vectors

Table 2 Results of the three models developed

Model	AIC	BIC	Adj. R² (training)	Adj. R² (testing)	For fitted (training) values			For forecasted (testing) values
Model	AIC	BIC	Adj. R² (training)	Adj. R² (testing)	MAE	RMSE	MAPE	MAE	RMSE	MAPE
Model 1	-33.59	-30.02	0.5611	0.4345	131.65	203.34	26.58	635.84	963.52	39.37
Model 2	-65.31	-61.74	0.7635	0.6880	95.65	146.83	18.81	532.39	715.59	43.76
Model 3	-50.01	-46.45	0.6824	0.7409	113.10	179.79	21.37	492.68	652.13	42.66

Abbreviations: AIC Akaike’s information criterion, BIC Bayesian information criterion, Adj. R² adjusted R-square, MAE mean absolute error, RMSE root mean square error, MAPE mean absolute percentage error

ISSN: 1756-3305