# Table 1 Parameters of the SIMPOP model that were estimated by approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)

Notation Definition and units Prior mean values and assumed distribution (parameters or range) Posterior mean [95% Credible Interval] Reference
T Air temperature (°C) Asubende (Ghana):
TNormal (mean = 29, SD = 3)
Sanaga (Cameroon):
TNormal (mean = 29, SD = 3)
Asubende: 27.9;
Sanaga: 26.8
Asubende: [24.3–32.3];
Sanaga: [20.8–33.7]

T W Water temperature (°C) Asubende (Ghana): 27 (25–33)
Sanaga (Cameroon): 25 (22–29)
Bioko (Equatorial Guinea): 24 (23–25)
T W  = 0.9844 T − 1.0352
Derived from estimated air temperature (above),
Asubende: 26.4;
Sanaga: 25.3



$${\mu}_L^0$$ Background per capita mortality rate of larvae (day–1) $${\mu}_L^0\sim Normal\kern0.5em \left(\mathrm{mean}=0.27,\kern0.5em \mathrm{SD}=0.05\right)$$ Asubende: 0.24;
Sanaga: 0.25
Asubende: [0.16–0.32];
Sanaga: [0.17–0.34]

μ P Per capita mortality rate of pupae (day–1) μ P Normal (mean = 0.1,  SD = 0.05) Asubende: 0.1;
Sanaga: 0.1
Asubende: [0.0–0.2];
Sanaga: [0.02–0.2]

$${\overline{\mu}}_V$$ Per capita loss rate of adult female flies (mortality + emigration) (day–1) Asubende: a relationship between adult fly mortality and air temperature  was used, and the loss term (Em) was estimated:
$$\begin{array}{l}{\overline{\mu}}_V={\mu}_V(T)+ Em\\ {}{\mu}_V(T)=0.0027{T}^2-0.163T+2.602\\ {} Em\sim Uniform\left(0,0.5\right)\end{array}}$$
Asubende: Em = 0.17
$${\overline{\mu}}_V=0.33$$
[0.04–0.37]
[0.2–0.53]
This study
Sanaga: a single term is estimated
$${\overline{\mu}}_V\sim Uniform\left(0,0.5\right)$$
Sanaga: $${\overline{\mu}}_V=0.32$$ [0.2–0.45] This study
ε L Efficacy of larviciding (1 minus the proportion of larvae surviving one day after deploying the insecticide) ε L Normal (mean = 0.8,  SD = 0.2) Asubende: 0.99;
Sanaga: 0.96
Asubende: [0.979–0.997];
Sanaga: [0.92–0.99]

g Length of gonotrophic cycle (days) g~Normal (mean-3.5, SD=0.25) Asubende: 3.27;
Sanaga: 3.45
Asubende: [2.89–3.61];
Sanaga: [2.96–3.86]

$$\left(\frac{H}{h}\right)$$ Human population density/human blood index $$\left(\frac{H}{h}\sim Uniform\left(100,1000\right)\right)$$ Asubende: 586;
Sanaga: 535
Asubende: [252–933];
Sanaga: [190–935]
[46, 49]
DBR* Pre-intervention equilibrium, daily biting rate (bites/person/day) Asubende:
DBRNormal(mean = 220,  SD = 30)
Sanaga:
DBRNormal(mean = 352,  SD = 64)
Asubende: 213;
Sanaga: 333
Asubende: [117–270];
Sanaga: [256–435]
[26, 49] 