Table 1 Parameters of the SIMPOP model that were estimated by approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)

T

Air temperature (°C)

Asubende (Ghana):

T ∼ Normal (mean = 29, SD = 3)

Sanaga (Cameroon):

T ∼ Normal (mean = 29, SD = 3)

Asubende: 27.9;

Sanaga: 26.8

Asubende: [24.3–32.3];

Sanaga: [20.8–33.7]

[23]

T _W

Water temperature (°C)

Asubende (Ghana): 27 (25–33)

Sanaga (Cameroon): 25 (22–29)

Bioko (Equatorial Guinea): 24 (23–25)

T _W  = 0.9844 T − 1.0352

Derived from estimated air temperature (above),

Asubende: 26.4;

Sanaga: 25.3

[59]

[29]

[23]

\( {\mu}_L^0 \)

Background per capita mortality rate of larvae (day^–1)

\( {\mu}_L^0\sim Normal\kern0.5em \left(\mathrm{mean}=0.27,\kern0.5em \mathrm{SD}=0.05\right) \)

Asubende: 0.24;

Sanaga: 0.25

Asubende: [0.16–0.32];

Sanaga: [0.17–0.34]

[23]

μ _P

Per capita mortality rate of pupae (day^–1)

μ _P  ∼ Normal (mean = 0.1,  SD = 0.05)

Asubende: 0.1;

Sanaga: 0.1

Asubende: [0.0–0.2];

Sanaga: [0.02–0.2]

[23]

\( {\overline{\mu}}_V \)

Per capita loss rate of adult female flies (mortality + emigration) (day^–1)

Asubende: a relationship between adult fly mortality and air temperature [23] was used, and the loss term (Em) was estimated:

\( {\displaystyle \begin{array}{l}{\overline{\mu}}_V={\mu}_V(T)+ Em\\ {}{\mu}_V(T)=0.0027{T}^2-0.163T+2.602\\ {} Em\sim Uniform\left(0,0.5\right)\end{array}} \)

Asubende: Em = 0.17

\( {\overline{\mu}}_V=0.33 \)

[0.04–0.37]

[0.2–0.53]

This study

Sanaga: a single term is estimated

\( {\overline{\mu}}_V\sim Uniform\left(0,0.5\right) \)

Sanaga: \( {\overline{\mu}}_V=0.32 \)

[0.2–0.45]

This study

ε _L

Efficacy of larviciding (1 minus the proportion of larvae surviving one day after deploying the insecticide)

ε _L  ∼ Normal (mean = 0.8,  SD = 0.2)

Asubende: 0.99;

Sanaga: 0.96

Asubende: [0.979–0.997];

Sanaga: [0.92–0.99]

[26]

g

Length of gonotrophic cycle (days)

g~Normal (mean-3.5, SD=0.25)

Asubende: 3.27;

Sanaga: 3.45

Asubende: [2.89–3.61];

Sanaga: [2.96–3.86]

[23]

\( \left(\frac{H}{h}\right) \)

Human population density/human blood index

\( \left(\frac{H}{h}\sim Uniform\left(100,1000\right)\right) \)

Asubende: 586;

Sanaga: 535

Asubende: [252–933];

Sanaga: [190–935]

[46, 49]

DBR*

Pre-intervention equilibrium, daily biting rate (bites/person/day)

Asubende:

DBR^∗ ∼ Normal(mean = 220,  SD = 30)

Sanaga:

DBR^∗ ∼ Normal(mean = 352,  SD = 64)

Asubende: 213;

Sanaga: 333

Asubende: [117–270];

Sanaga: [256–435]

[26, 49]