Fig. 1

Schematic of the model structure. a The modelled life stages. The aquatic stages (eggs, larvae and pupae) are grouped together as immature (I) vectors and the non-aquatic vectors as mature (M) adult mosquitoes. The parameter, p, represents the development of immature vectors to adult vectors. The parameters μ_I and μ_M are the mortality rates for the immature and mature vectors, respectively. In adverse weather, the adult vectors (M) are assumed to adapt and move into the dormant state M_d. The movement (plasticity) of mosquitoes between the active and dormant compartments is modelled by the parameters d (adaptation) and w (reactivation). b The curves used to model vector rainfall-based fitness, adaptation and reactivation between the dry and the wet seasons