Fig. 6

Fit of egg-to-pupae procedure. a The fit of the egg-to-pupae procedure predictions to the data, where the black line shows the observed pupal abundance and the red line shows the pupal abundance predicted by the egg-to-pupae model under the posterior median values of the predation parameters. b The relative contributions of density-independent mortality (black, Ewing et al. [62] Equation S.6), predation (red, Equation A8) and competition (blue, Equation A10) to the total estimated mortality throughout the season. A centered 7-day moving average of each time series was taken to smooth out some of the substantial daily variability in the data. The windows within the dotted lines show the duration of immature development leading up to the pupal peaks predicted by the model. For each peak the second dotted line corresponds to the time, t_peak, of the maximum predicted pupal abundance for that peak and the first dotted line corresponds to the time at which the eggs which gave rise to the peak were predicted to be laid by the model, using the delay given in Equation 1. Parameter values are given in Additional file 1: Table S1.