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Fig. 3 | Parasites & Vectors

Fig. 3

From: Human population movement can impede the elimination of soil-transmitted helminth transmission in regions with heterogeneity in mass drug administration coverage and transmission potential between villages: a metapopulation analysis

Fig. 3

Probability of elimination determined two years after cessation of a five-year MDA programme dependent on annual movement rate during and after MDA. The probability of elimination depends on the percentage of the population moving between villages and the STH prevalence in the source village. The probability estimate is based on the percentage of simulations out of 300 iterations in which the STH prevalence in the treated village is beneath a previously determined threshold value that predicts with 95% probability whether the transmission breakpoint has been reached or not (20% for A. lumbricoides, 9% for hookworm). The solid line is the mean of ten sets of 300 iterative simulation runs. The shaded area is one standard deviation above and below the mean value. a, b The whole community receives MDA once a year with 75% coverage across all age groups. c, d The whole community receives MDA twice a year with 75% coverage across all age groups. a, c Results for A. lumbricoides. b, d Results for hookworm. Population size per village n = 500. Prevalence levels: low: < 20%; medium: 2530%; high 6070%

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