Modelling the transmission dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Jiangsu Province, China

Zhang, Nan; Cheng, Xiao-Qing; Deng, Bin; Rui, Jia; Qiu, Luxia; Zhao, Zeyu; Lin, Shengnan; Liu, Xingchun; Xu, Jingwen; Wang, Yao; Yang, Meng; Zhu, Yuanzhao; Huang, Jiefeng; Liu, Chan; Liu, Weikang; Luo, Li; Li, Zhuoyang; Li, Peihua; Yang, Tianlong; Li, Zhi-Feng; Liang, Shu-Yi; Wang, Xiao-Chen; Hu, Jian-Li; Chen, Tianmu

doi:10.1186/s13071-021-04732-3

Parasites & Vectors

Table 4 Interventional effect of cutting off different transmission routes on SFTS

From: Modelling the transmission dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Jiangsu Province, China

“Knock-out” scenario*	Cumulative number of cases	Total attack rate	Peak time (days)
β₁	0	0	0
β₃	671	0	205
β_w	0	0	198
β₂₁	671	0	205
β₃₁	671		205
β₂₃	671	0	205
β₃₂	671	0	205
β₃β_w	0	0	198
β₃β₂₁	671	0	205
β₃β₃₁	671	0	205
β₃β₂₃	671	0	205
β₃β₃₂	671	0	205
β_wβ₂₁	0	0	198
β_wβ₃₁	0	0	10
β_wβ₂₃	0	0	198
β_wβ₃₂	0	0	198
β₂₁β₂₃	671	0	205
β₂₁β₃₁	671	0	205
β₂₁β₃₂	671	0	205
β₃₁β₂₃	671	0	205
β₃₁β₃₂	671	0	205
β₂₃β₃₂	671	0	205
β₃β_wβ₂₁	0	0	198
β₃β_wβ₃₁	0	0	10
β₃β_wβ₂₃	0	0	198
β₃β_wβ₃₂	0	0	198
β₃β₂₁β₃₁	671	0	205
β₃β₂₁β₃₂	671	0	205
β₃β₂₁β₂₃	671	0	205
β₃β₃₁β₂₃	671	0	205
β₃β₃₁β₃₂	671	0	205
β₃β₂₃β₃₂	671	0	205
β_wβ₂₁β₃₁	0	0	10
β_wβ₂₁β₂₃	0	0	198
β_wβ₃₁β₂₃	0	0	10
β_wβ₂₁β₃₂	0	0	198
β_wβ₃₁β₃₂	0	0	10
β_wβ₂₃β₃₂	0	0	198
β₂₁β₃₁β₂₃	671	0	205
β₂₁β₃₁β₃₂	671	0	205
β₂₁β₂₃β₃₂	671	0	205
β₃₁β₂₃β₃₂	671	0	205
β₃β_wβ₂₁β₃₁	0	0	7
β₃β_wβ₂₁β₂₃	0	0	198
β₃β_wβ₂₁β₃₂	0	0	198
β₃β_wβ₂₃β₃₂	0	0	198
β₃β_wβ₃₁β₂₃	0	0	10
β₃β_wβ₃₁β₃₂	0	0	10
β₃β₂₁β₃₁β₂₃	671	0	205
β₃β₂₁β₂₃β₃₂	671	0	205
β₃β₂₁β₃₁β₃₂	671	0	205
β₃β₃₁β₂₃β₃₂	671	0	205
β_wβ₂₁β₃₁β₂₃	0	0	10
β_wβ₂₁β₃₁β₃₂	0	0	10
β_wβ₂₁β₂₃β₃₂	0	0	198
β_wβ₃₁β₂₃β₃₂	0	0	10
β₂₁β₃₁β₂₃β₃₂	671	0	205
β₃β_wβ₂₁β₃₁β₂₃	0	0	10
β₃β_wβ₂₁β₃₁β₃₂	0	0	10
β₃β_wβ₂₁β₂₃β₃₂	0	0	198
β₃β_wβ₃₁β₂₃β₃₂	0	0	10
β₃β₂₁β₃₁β₂₃β₃₂	671	0	205
β_wβ₂₁β₃₁β₂₃β₃₂	0	0	10
β₃β_wβ₂₁β₃₁β₂₃β₃₂	0	0	10

^*“Knock-out” means to simulate cutting off the transmission routes by setting a parameter to 0, and estimates the contribution of the parameter by calculating the number of reduced cases or the total attack rate. The different scenario means which parameter was set as 0

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ISSN: 1756-3305

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