Table 1 Association of the Phlebotomus argentipes sand fly density in VL and non-VL villages in aggregate (combining all three districts), at the individual district level and in monthly collections and their 95% credible intervals

Intercept

17.98 (14.82–22.01)

28.28 (22.06–36.94)

3.60 (2.69–4.82)

5.25 (3.82–7.49)

Village type (ref: VL Village)

 Non-VL Village

1.90 (1.66–2.17)

0.53 (0.44–0.63)

1.53 (1.28–1.85)

12.7 (10.31–15.76)

District (ref: Morang)

 Saptari

1.05 (0.89–1.23)

–

–

–

 Sunsari

0.36 (0.31–0.41)

–

–

–

Months (ref: July 2017)

 August 2017

0.51 (0.4–0.66)

0.45 (0.32–0.65)

0.61 (0.41–0.92)

0.49 (0.32–0.75)

 September 2017

0.68 (0.53–0.88)

1.03 (0.71–1.48)

0.77 (0.52–1.17)

0.37 (0.24–0.57)

 October 2017

0.45 (0.34–0.57)

0.50 (0.35–0.72)

0.77 (0.51–1.15)

0.39 (0.26–0.6)

 November 2017

0.57 (0.44–0.73)

0.32 (0.23–0.46)

0.95 (0.63–1.42)

0.66 (0.44–1.01)

 December 2017

0.11 (0.08–0.14)

0.12 (0.08–0.17)

0.38 (0.26–0.59)

0.04 (0.02–0.06)

 January 2018

0.00 (0.00–0.00)

0.00 (0.00–0.00)

0.01 (0.00–0.03)

0.00 (0.00–0.00)

 February 2018

0.00 (0.00–0.01)

0.00 (0.00–0.01)

0.01 (0.00–0.03)

0.00 (0.00–0.00)

 March 2018

0.25 (0.20–0.32)

0.33 (0.23–0.48)

0.52 (0.34–0.78)

0.60 (0.38–0.92)

 April 2018

0.34 (0.27–0.45)

0.47 (0.33–0.67)

0.90 (0.62–1.36)

0.15 (0.10–0.24)

 May 2018

0.46 (0.35–0.59)

0.22 (0.15–0.32)

1.23 (0.84–1.83)

0.84 (0.54–1.27)

 June 2018

0.83 (0.64–1.07)

0.70 (0.49–1.00)

1.90 (1.28–2.84)

0.85 (0.55–1.29)