Rosenberg R, Lindsey NP, Fischer M, Gregory CJ, Hinckley AF, Mead PS, et al. Vital signs: Trends in reported vectorborne disease cases—United States and territories, 2004–2016. Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2018;67:496–501.
Mostashari F, Bunning ML, Kitsutani PT, Singer DA, Nash D, Cooper MJ, et al. Epidemic West Nile encephalitis, New York, 1999: Results of a household-based seroepidemiological survey. Lancet. 2001;358:261–4.
Nash D, Mostashari F, Fine A, Miller J, O’Leary D, Murray K, et al. The outbreak of West Nile virus infection in the New York City area in 1999. N Engl J Med. 2001;344:1807–14.
Kramer LD, Ciota AT, Kilpatrick AM. Introduction, spread, and establishment of West Nile virus in the Americas. J Med Entomol. 2019. https://doi.org/10.1093/jme/tjz151.
Centers of Disease Control and Prevention. Final cumulative maps and data for 1999–2020. 2021. https://www.cdc.gov/westnile/statsmaps/cumMapsData.html. Accessed July 2022.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease incidence by county. ArboNET maps. 2005–2020. https://wwwn.cdc.gov/arbonet/maps/ADB_Diseases_Map/index.html. Accessed July 2022.
McLean RG, Ubico SR, Docherty DE, Hansen WR, Sileo L, McNamara TS. West Nile virus transmission and ecology in birds. Ann NY Acad Sci. 2001;951:54–7.
Kilpatrick AM, LaDeau SL, Marra PP. Ecology of West Nile virus transmission and its impact on birds in the western hemisphere. Auk. 2007;124:1121–36.
Rochlin I, Faraji A, Healy K, Andreadis TG. West Nile virus mosquito vectors in North America. J Med Entomol. 2019. https://doi.org/10.1093/jme/tjz146.
Kramer LD, Styer LM, Ebel GD. A global perspective on the epidemiology of West Nile virus. Annu Rev Entomol. 2008;53:61–81.
Ciota AT, Matacchiero AC, Kilpatrick AM, Kramer LD. The effect of temperature on life history traits of Culex mosquitoes. J Med Ent. 2014;51:55–62.
Reisen WK. Effect of temperature on Culex tarsalis (Diptera: Culicidae) from the Coachella and San Joaquin valleys of California. J Med Entomol. 1995;32:636–45.
Dohm DJ, O’guinn ML, Turell MJ,. Effect of environmental temperature on the ability of Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae) to transmit West Nile virus. J Med Entomol. 2002;39:221.
Kilpatrick AM, Meola MA, Moudy RM, Kramer LD. Temperature, viral genetics, and the transmission of West Nile virus by Culex pipiens mosquitoes. PLoS Pathog. 2008;4:e1000092.
Reisen WK, Fang Y, Martinez VM. Effects of temperature on the transmission of West Nile virus by Culex tarsalis (Diptera: Culicidae). J Med Entomol. 2006;43:309–17.
Cornel AJ, Jupp PG, Blackburn NK. Environmental temperature on the vector competence of Culex univittatus (Diptera: Culicidae) for West Nile Virus. J Med Entomol. 1993;30:449–56.
Goddard LB, Roth AE, Reisen WK, Scott TW. Extrinsic incubation period of West Nile virus in four California Culex (Diptera: Culicidae) species. Proc Pap Mosq Control Assoc Calif. 2003;71:70–5.
Shocket MS, Verwillow AB, Numazu MG, Slamani H, Cohen JM, El Moustaid F, et al. Transmission of West Nile and five other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at temperatures between 23 ˚C and 26 ˚C. Elife. 2020;9:1–67.
Hahn MB, Monaghan AJ, Hayden MH, Eisen RJ, Delorey MJ, Lindsey NP, et al. Meteorological conditions associated with increased incidence of West Nile virus disease in the United States, 2004–2012. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2015;92:1013–22.
Shaman J, Harding K, Campbell SR. Meteorological and hydrological influences on the spatial and temporal prevalence of West Nile Virus in Culex mosquitoes, Suffolk County, New York. J Med Entomol. 2011;48:867–75.
Shaman J, Day JF, Komar N. Hydrologic conditions describe West Nile Virus risk in Colorado. Int J Env Res Public Heal. 2010;7:494–508.
Landesman WJ, Allan BF, Langerhans RB, Knight TM, Chase JM. Inter-annual associations between precipitation and human incidence of West Nile virus in the United States. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2007;7:337–43.
Gardner AM, Hamer GL, Hines AM, Newman CM, Walker ED, Ruiz MO. Weather variability affects abundance of larval Culex (Diptera: Culicidae) in storm water catch basins in suburban Chicago. J Med Entomol. 2012;49:270–6.
Johnson BJ, Sukhdeo MVK. Drought-induced amplification of local and regional West Nile virus infection rates in New Jersey. J Med Entomol. 2013;50:195–204.
Paull SH, Horton DE, Ashfaq M, Rastogi D, Kramer LD, Diffenbaugh NS, et al. Drought and immunity determine the intensity of West Nile virus epidemics and climate change impacts. Proc R Soc B. 2017;284:1–10.
Reiner RC, Perkins TA, Barker CM, Niu T, Chaves LF, Ellis AM, et al. A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970–2010. J R Soc Interface. 2013;10:20120921.
Barker CM. Models and surveillance systems to detect and predict West Nile virus outbreaks. J Med Entomol. 2019;56:1508–15.
Keyel AC, Gorris ME, Rochlin I, Uelmen JA, Chaves LF, Hamer GL, et al. A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2021;15:e0009653.
McDonald E, Mathis S, Martin SW, Staples JE, Fischer M, Lindsey NP. Surveillance for West Nile Virus Disease—United States, 2009–2018. MMWR Surveill Summ. 2021;70:1–15.
Shannon CE. A mathematical theory of communication. Bell Syst Tech J. 1948;27:379–423.
R Core Team. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna: R Foundation for Statistical Computing; 2021. https://www.R-project.org/. Accessed Aug 2022.
PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University. Monthly mean temperature, minimum temperature, and total precipitation datasets. 2021. https://prism.oregonstate.edu. Accessed Mar 2022.
Gneiting T, Raftery AE. Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation. J Am Stat Assoc. 2007;102:359–78.
Rosenfeld R, Grefenstette J, Burke D. A proposal for standardized evaluation of epidemiological models. 2012. http://delphi.midas.cs.cmu.edu/files/StandardizedEvaluation_Revised_12-11-09.pdf. Accessed May 2022.
Yates JF. External correspondence: decompositions of the mean probability score. Organ Behav Hum Perform. 1982;30:132–56.
Murphy AH. A new vector partition of the probability score. J Appl Meteorol. 1973;12:595–600.
Johansson MA, Apfeldorf KM, Dobson S, Devita J, Buczak AL, Baugher B, et al. Correction for Johansson et al., an open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2019;116:26087–8.
Goodrich B, Gabry J, Ali I, Brilleman S. rstanarm: Bayesian applied regression modeling via Stan. R package version 2.21.1. 2020. https://mc-stan.org/rstanarm. Accessed Jan 2022.
DeFelice NB, Birger R, DeFelice N, Gagner A, Campbell SR, Romano C, et al. Modeling and surveillance of reporting delays of mosquitoes and humans infected with West Nile virus and associations with accuracy of West Nile virus forecasts. JAMA Netw Open. 2019;2:e193175.
Danforth ME, Snyder RE, Lonstrup ETN, Barker CM, Kramer VL. Evaluation of the effectiveness of the California mosquito-borne virus surveillance and response plan, 2009–2018. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2022;16:e0010375.
Winters AM, Bolling BG, Beaty BJ, Blair CD, Eisen RJ, Meyer AM, et al. Combining mosquito vector and human disease data for improved assessment of spatial West Nile virus disease risk. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2008;78:654–65.
Bolling BG, Barker CM, Moore CG, Pape WJ, Eisen L. Seasonal patterns for entomological measures of risk for exposure to Culex vectors and West Nile virus in relation to human disease cases in Northeastern Colorado. J Med Entomol. 2009;46:1519–31.
Kilpatrick AM, Pape WJ. Predicting human West Nile virus infections with mosquito surveillance data. Am J Epidemiol. 2013;178:829–35.
Darsie RF, Ward RA. Review of new Nearctic mosquito distributional records north of Mexico, with notes on additions and taxonomic changes of the fauna, 1982–89. J Am Mosq Control Assoc. 1989;5:552–7.
Darsie RFJ, Ward RA. Identification and geographic distribution of mosquitoes of North America, north of Mexico. Supplements to mosquito systematics. Fresno: American Mosquito Control Association; 1981.
Gorris ME, Bartlow AW, Temple SD, Romero-Alvarez D, Shutt DP, Fair JM, et al. Updated distribution maps of predominant Culex mosquitoes across the Americas. Parasites Vectors. 2021;14:1.
Lindsey NP, Brown JA, Kightlinger L, Rosenberg L, Fischer M. State health department perceived utility of and satisfaction with ArboNET, the US National Arboviral Surveillance System. Public Health Rep. 2012;127:383–90.
Reich NG, Brooks LC, Fox SJ, Kandula S, McGowan CJ, Moore E, et al. A collaborative multiyear, multimodel assessment of seasonal influenza forecasting in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2019;116:3146–54.
Reich NG, McGowan CJ, Yamana TK, Tushar A, Ray EL, Osthus D, et al. Accuracy of real-time multi-model ensemble forecasts for seasonal influenza in the US PLoS Comput Biol. 2019;15:e1007486.
Cramer EY, Ray EL, Lopez VK, Bracher J, Brennen A, Castro Rivadeneira AJ, et al. Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2022;119:e1007486.
Jose VRR, Grushka-Cockayne Y, Lichtendahl KC. Trimmed opinion pools and the crowd’s calibration problem. Manage Sci. 2014;60:463–75.
Stone M. The opinion pool. Ann Math Stat. 1961;32:1339–42.
Lockaby G, Noori N, Morse W, Zipperer W, Kalin L, Governo R, et al. Climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic factors associated with West Nile virus incidence in Atlanta, Georgia, USA. J Vector Ecol. 2016;41:232–43.
Wimberly MC, Lamsal A, Giacomo P, Chuang TW. Regional variation of climatic influences on West Nile virus outbreaks in the United States. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2014;91:677–84.
Degroote JP, Sugumaran R, Ecker M. Landscape, demographic and climatic associations with human West Nile virus occurrence regionally in 2012 in the United States of America. Geospat Health. 2014. https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2014.13.
Poh KC, Chaves LF, Reyna-nava M, Roberts CM, Fredregill C, Bueno R, et al. The influence of weather and weather variability on mosquito abundance and infection with West Nile virus in Harris County, Texas, USA. Sci Total Environ. 2019;675:260–72.
Yoo EH, Chen D, Diao C. The effects of weather and environmental factors on West Nile virus mosquito abundance in Greater Toronto area. Earth Interact. 2016;20:1–22.
Tversky A, Kahneman D. Judgment under uncertainty Heuristics and biases. Science. 1974;185:1124–31.