Rosenberg R, Lindsey NP, Fischer M, Gregory CJ, Hinckley AF, Mead PS, et al. Vital signs: Trends in reported vectorborne disease cases—United States and territories, 2004–2016. Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2018;67:496–501.
Article
Google Scholar
Mostashari F, Bunning ML, Kitsutani PT, Singer DA, Nash D, Cooper MJ, et al. Epidemic West Nile encephalitis, New York, 1999: Results of a household-based seroepidemiological survey. Lancet. 2001;358:261–4.
Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Nash D, Mostashari F, Fine A, Miller J, O’Leary D, Murray K, et al. The outbreak of West Nile virus infection in the New York City area in 1999. N Engl J Med. 2001;344:1807–14.
Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Kramer LD, Ciota AT, Kilpatrick AM. Introduction, spread, and establishment of West Nile virus in the Americas. J Med Entomol. 2019. https://doi.org/10.1093/jme/tjz151.
Article
Google Scholar
Centers of Disease Control and Prevention. Final cumulative maps and data for 1999–2020. 2021. https://www.cdc.gov/westnile/statsmaps/cumMapsData.html. Accessed July 2022.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease incidence by county. ArboNET maps. 2005–2020. https://wwwn.cdc.gov/arbonet/maps/ADB_Diseases_Map/index.html. Accessed July 2022.
McLean RG, Ubico SR, Docherty DE, Hansen WR, Sileo L, McNamara TS. West Nile virus transmission and ecology in birds. Ann NY Acad Sci. 2001;951:54–7.
Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Kilpatrick AM, LaDeau SL, Marra PP. Ecology of West Nile virus transmission and its impact on birds in the western hemisphere. Auk. 2007;124:1121–36.
Article
Google Scholar
Rochlin I, Faraji A, Healy K, Andreadis TG. West Nile virus mosquito vectors in North America. J Med Entomol. 2019. https://doi.org/10.1093/jme/tjz146.
Article
Google Scholar
Kramer LD, Styer LM, Ebel GD. A global perspective on the epidemiology of West Nile virus. Annu Rev Entomol. 2008;53:61–81.
Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Ciota AT, Matacchiero AC, Kilpatrick AM, Kramer LD. The effect of temperature on life history traits of Culex mosquitoes. J Med Ent. 2014;51:55–62.
Article
Google Scholar
Reisen WK. Effect of temperature on Culex tarsalis (Diptera: Culicidae) from the Coachella and San Joaquin valleys of California. J Med Entomol. 1995;32:636–45.
Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Dohm DJ, O’guinn ML, Turell MJ,. Effect of environmental temperature on the ability of Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae) to transmit West Nile virus. J Med Entomol. 2002;39:221.
Article
Google Scholar
Kilpatrick AM, Meola MA, Moudy RM, Kramer LD. Temperature, viral genetics, and the transmission of West Nile virus by Culex pipiens mosquitoes. PLoS Pathog. 2008;4:e1000092.
Article
Google Scholar
Reisen WK, Fang Y, Martinez VM. Effects of temperature on the transmission of West Nile virus by Culex tarsalis (Diptera: Culicidae). J Med Entomol. 2006;43:309–17.
Article
Google Scholar
Cornel AJ, Jupp PG, Blackburn NK. Environmental temperature on the vector competence of Culex univittatus (Diptera: Culicidae) for West Nile Virus. J Med Entomol. 1993;30:449–56.
Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Goddard LB, Roth AE, Reisen WK, Scott TW. Extrinsic incubation period of West Nile virus in four California Culex (Diptera: Culicidae) species. Proc Pap Mosq Control Assoc Calif. 2003;71:70–5.
Google Scholar
Shocket MS, Verwillow AB, Numazu MG, Slamani H, Cohen JM, El Moustaid F, et al. Transmission of West Nile and five other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at temperatures between 23 ˚C and 26 ˚C. Elife. 2020;9:1–67.
Article
Google Scholar
Hahn MB, Monaghan AJ, Hayden MH, Eisen RJ, Delorey MJ, Lindsey NP, et al. Meteorological conditions associated with increased incidence of West Nile virus disease in the United States, 2004–2012. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2015;92:1013–22.
Article
Google Scholar
Shaman J, Harding K, Campbell SR. Meteorological and hydrological influences on the spatial and temporal prevalence of West Nile Virus in Culex mosquitoes, Suffolk County, New York. J Med Entomol. 2011;48:867–75.
Article
Google Scholar
Shaman J, Day JF, Komar N. Hydrologic conditions describe West Nile Virus risk in Colorado. Int J Env Res Public Heal. 2010;7:494–508.
Article
Google Scholar
Landesman WJ, Allan BF, Langerhans RB, Knight TM, Chase JM. Inter-annual associations between precipitation and human incidence of West Nile virus in the United States. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2007;7:337–43.
Article
Google Scholar
Gardner AM, Hamer GL, Hines AM, Newman CM, Walker ED, Ruiz MO. Weather variability affects abundance of larval Culex (Diptera: Culicidae) in storm water catch basins in suburban Chicago. J Med Entomol. 2012;49:270–6.
Article
Google Scholar
Johnson BJ, Sukhdeo MVK. Drought-induced amplification of local and regional West Nile virus infection rates in New Jersey. J Med Entomol. 2013;50:195–204.
Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Paull SH, Horton DE, Ashfaq M, Rastogi D, Kramer LD, Diffenbaugh NS, et al. Drought and immunity determine the intensity of West Nile virus epidemics and climate change impacts. Proc R Soc B. 2017;284:1–10.
Article
Google Scholar
Reiner RC, Perkins TA, Barker CM, Niu T, Chaves LF, Ellis AM, et al. A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970–2010. J R Soc Interface. 2013;10:20120921.
Article
Google Scholar
Barker CM. Models and surveillance systems to detect and predict West Nile virus outbreaks. J Med Entomol. 2019;56:1508–15.
Article
Google Scholar
Keyel AC, Gorris ME, Rochlin I, Uelmen JA, Chaves LF, Hamer GL, et al. A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2021;15:e0009653.
Article
Google Scholar
McDonald E, Mathis S, Martin SW, Staples JE, Fischer M, Lindsey NP. Surveillance for West Nile Virus Disease—United States, 2009–2018. MMWR Surveill Summ. 2021;70:1–15.
Article
Google Scholar
Shannon CE. A mathematical theory of communication. Bell Syst Tech J. 1948;27:379–423.
Article
Google Scholar
R Core Team. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna: R Foundation for Statistical Computing; 2021. https://www.R-project.org/. Accessed Aug 2022.
Google Scholar
PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University. Monthly mean temperature, minimum temperature, and total precipitation datasets. 2021. https://prism.oregonstate.edu. Accessed Mar 2022.
Gneiting T, Raftery AE. Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation. J Am Stat Assoc. 2007;102:359–78.
Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Rosenfeld R, Grefenstette J, Burke D. A proposal for standardized evaluation of epidemiological models. 2012. http://delphi.midas.cs.cmu.edu/files/StandardizedEvaluation_Revised_12-11-09.pdf. Accessed May 2022.
Yates JF. External correspondence: decompositions of the mean probability score. Organ Behav Hum Perform. 1982;30:132–56.
Article
Google Scholar
Murphy AH. A new vector partition of the probability score. J Appl Meteorol. 1973;12:595–600.
Article
Google Scholar
Johansson MA, Apfeldorf KM, Dobson S, Devita J, Buczak AL, Baugher B, et al. Correction for Johansson et al., an open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2019;116:26087–8.
Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Goodrich B, Gabry J, Ali I, Brilleman S. rstanarm: Bayesian applied regression modeling via Stan. R package version 2.21.1. 2020. https://mc-stan.org/rstanarm. Accessed Jan 2022.
DeFelice NB, Birger R, DeFelice N, Gagner A, Campbell SR, Romano C, et al. Modeling and surveillance of reporting delays of mosquitoes and humans infected with West Nile virus and associations with accuracy of West Nile virus forecasts. JAMA Netw Open. 2019;2:e193175.
Article
Google Scholar
Danforth ME, Snyder RE, Lonstrup ETN, Barker CM, Kramer VL. Evaluation of the effectiveness of the California mosquito-borne virus surveillance and response plan, 2009–2018. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2022;16:e0010375.
Article
Google Scholar
Winters AM, Bolling BG, Beaty BJ, Blair CD, Eisen RJ, Meyer AM, et al. Combining mosquito vector and human disease data for improved assessment of spatial West Nile virus disease risk. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2008;78:654–65.
Article
Google Scholar
Bolling BG, Barker CM, Moore CG, Pape WJ, Eisen L. Seasonal patterns for entomological measures of risk for exposure to Culex vectors and West Nile virus in relation to human disease cases in Northeastern Colorado. J Med Entomol. 2009;46:1519–31.
Article
Google Scholar
Kilpatrick AM, Pape WJ. Predicting human West Nile virus infections with mosquito surveillance data. Am J Epidemiol. 2013;178:829–35.
Article
Google Scholar
Darsie RF, Ward RA. Review of new Nearctic mosquito distributional records north of Mexico, with notes on additions and taxonomic changes of the fauna, 1982–89. J Am Mosq Control Assoc. 1989;5:552–7.
Google Scholar
Darsie RFJ, Ward RA. Identification and geographic distribution of mosquitoes of North America, north of Mexico. Supplements to mosquito systematics. Fresno: American Mosquito Control Association; 1981.
Google Scholar
Gorris ME, Bartlow AW, Temple SD, Romero-Alvarez D, Shutt DP, Fair JM, et al. Updated distribution maps of predominant Culex mosquitoes across the Americas. Parasites Vectors. 2021;14:1.
Article
Google Scholar
Lindsey NP, Brown JA, Kightlinger L, Rosenberg L, Fischer M. State health department perceived utility of and satisfaction with ArboNET, the US National Arboviral Surveillance System. Public Health Rep. 2012;127:383–90.
Article
Google Scholar
Reich NG, Brooks LC, Fox SJ, Kandula S, McGowan CJ, Moore E, et al. A collaborative multiyear, multimodel assessment of seasonal influenza forecasting in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2019;116:3146–54.
Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Reich NG, McGowan CJ, Yamana TK, Tushar A, Ray EL, Osthus D, et al. Accuracy of real-time multi-model ensemble forecasts for seasonal influenza in the US PLoS Comput Biol. 2019;15:e1007486.
Article
Google Scholar
Cramer EY, Ray EL, Lopez VK, Bracher J, Brennen A, Castro Rivadeneira AJ, et al. Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2022;119:e1007486.
Jose VRR, Grushka-Cockayne Y, Lichtendahl KC. Trimmed opinion pools and the crowd’s calibration problem. Manage Sci. 2014;60:463–75.
Article
Google Scholar
Stone M. The opinion pool. Ann Math Stat. 1961;32:1339–42.
Article
Google Scholar
Lockaby G, Noori N, Morse W, Zipperer W, Kalin L, Governo R, et al. Climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic factors associated with West Nile virus incidence in Atlanta, Georgia, USA. J Vector Ecol. 2016;41:232–43.
Article
Google Scholar
Wimberly MC, Lamsal A, Giacomo P, Chuang TW. Regional variation of climatic influences on West Nile virus outbreaks in the United States. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2014;91:677–84.
Article
Google Scholar
Degroote JP, Sugumaran R, Ecker M. Landscape, demographic and climatic associations with human West Nile virus occurrence regionally in 2012 in the United States of America. Geospat Health. 2014. https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2014.13.
Article
Google Scholar
Poh KC, Chaves LF, Reyna-nava M, Roberts CM, Fredregill C, Bueno R, et al. The influence of weather and weather variability on mosquito abundance and infection with West Nile virus in Harris County, Texas, USA. Sci Total Environ. 2019;675:260–72.
Article
CAS
Google Scholar
Yoo EH, Chen D, Diao C. The effects of weather and environmental factors on West Nile virus mosquito abundance in Greater Toronto area. Earth Interact. 2016;20:1–22.
Article
Google Scholar
Tversky A, Kahneman D. Judgment under uncertainty Heuristics and biases. Science. 1974;185:1124–31.
Article
CAS
Google Scholar